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tv   Asia Edge  Bloomberg  September 7, 2015 11:00pm-12:01am EDT

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trade accord but the prime minister says the fallout will be immense. rishaad: samsung reportedly swinging the accept headquarters. we look -- the acts at headquarters -- ax at headquarters. we look at the list of problems. are we looking at a ticking time bomb? europe thinks that the chinese contraction could be permanent. i am shery ahn, keeping an eye on the market. asian stocks rising for the first time in days, after seven weeks of consecutive decline. the tsx in australia leading the game. il sector is rallying after austria's second-largest oil producer made a takeover bid, 16%.
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the climb was led by the nikkei which went into the break in the red after ending a 10th of a percent lower. gdp dataecond quarter showing the economy contracted 1.2%. the shanghai composite turn the positive right after we had chinese trade data -- turned positive right after we had chinese trade data but it has turned to negative territory despite authorities saying they are considering a circuit breaker for stocks. the hang seng in positive territory, rising .5%. we will have more with how markets are reacting to the busy morning. rishaad: it is about data, trade data, as sherry was alluding to. david is standing by. have been waiting here, or i have been waiting here for the past hour, for the
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dollar numbers. this giveshave, and you a clear indication of how trade and out, are the yuan figures. not good as well. exports yearg at on year, down 14.3%. the previous was down. if you look at exports, not the best picture. downess than july, 6.1% -- less than july, six .1%. you put them together and it is not a good picture. you are getting a bigger trade surplus but the trade has slowed down substantially. we are talking about the value of goods. trade surplus, 368 billion renminbi. that is an remember the terms. you want to convert that into u.s. -- that is in the renminbi terms.
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that gives you about 56 billion u.s. dollars. we are waiting for the dollar figures. if we see the numbers,, exports 7.9%..5% and imports putting them down, a trade balance of $48 billion. the numbers that we have is consistent with the forecast. another words, not good. the flip side, to mention this in other words, not good. the flip side, to mention this as well, reserves, which were down august from july. this is a counter effect. it does help the pboc deal because it is a foster devalue -- plus to the value. the difference between capital loss, they have to clean up the difference. sure he is pointing out, the shanghai composite, roughly unchanged. pointing out, the
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shanghai composite, roughly unchanged. rishaad: the prime minister has underlined his support for the deal with china. it has become a political football. is at risk of being struck down? let's get over to paul allen in sydney. what exactly is the issue? paul: it is pure politics, angie. moving the motion in the house, tony abbott is trying to bring things to a head. there has been considerable opposition to the free trade agreement from unions and the opposition labor party and it boils down to the boringly named investment facilitation arrangement. in plain english, what it means is that a chinese firm can fly in temporary workers for a project work over -- worth over $150 million without asking a.
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he ends can do the work. the opposition labor party points out that this would -- without asking if australians can do the work. the opposition labor party points out that this would devalue the economy. but it mainly applies for management. they point out that this is exactly the provision that is in the japan and south korea in free trade agreements and yet the opposition is strangely silent. they are accusing them of xenophobia at best and racism at worst and the debate is descending into a nasty scene in parliament right now. angie: from the politics of china to now the raw data. thank you so much for that. let's throw it back to david where we have the breaking trade numbers from china. david: just when i was wrapping things up with the yuan numbers we got the dollar data. 5.5%, not as bad
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as the forecast, but imports, this just about double the rate of decline that economists -- doubled the rate of decline that economists have penciled in. that is an acceleration in decline. it is roughly double what was expected. we are waiting for the trade balance but moving to the quick numbers, it be getting a trade surplus in the region of 55 billion u.s. dollars for the month. that is what we have. let's send it back to you. angie: in dollar terms, falling right now. let's see how the markets are reacting to all of this. here is shery ahn. sherry: let's take a look at the aussie dollar because australia sends 30% of exports to china. the aussie dollar holding onto gains, up .4% but trading below the 70 u.s. and mark -- cent mark. the aussie declined for the past two months, pushing a six-year low yesterday.
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the kiwi dollar managing to hold at 62.80 u.s. .3% cents. they're holding a policy meeting on thursday and the central bank is expected to cut the cash rate of 25 basis points. let's take a look at chinese reversedcause they losses earlier in the day when the trade numbers came out. they rose and they were unable to hold onto gains and are now down .5%. still, last time i checked, small caps in china are rising for the second consecutive session. member yesterday that -- remember yesterday that it was the first one to rise in a week. . shares are trading higher
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japanesethe revised second quarter gdp was marginally better and quite a bit better than the economists have been forecasting so why is it flashing warning signs to investors? here we break down the numbers. zeb: 1.2% was better than the market estimated and better than economists had forecast but what is hidden in the numbers is the fact that inventories are very high. you have the inventory risking the rebound hurting the potential of the rebound because you have to work through inventory. that is something that corporate japan is struggling with, the increase in private adding .3% to quarterly gdp, more than estimated. capital investment fell versus the previous quarter and private consumption declined. you have companies investing less and consumers buying less. you have inventories rising with no buyers. amid a week economic climate --
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weak economic climate globally. rishaad: it is a vicious cycle and the board members are having reservations with abenomics. zeb: they have been staunch defenders of the 2% inflation target. sources familiar with the situation told bloomberg news that some boj board members are questioning the underlying economic fundamentals of japan because of the export weakness, as of the buildup in inventory, is of china's evaluation and its challenges, that japanese fundamentals could be altered. you do not have the third arrow to follow through with the plan. rishaad: thank you very much. angie: some other stories we are watching for you today, reports from south korea say that samsung electronics are
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preparing to swing the acts at headquarters -- axe at headquarters. they are rumored to be cutting 10% of the workforce including public relations and finance. they declined to comment when contacted by bloomberg news this morning but they are under g pressure after lukewarm reception to the new phone and attacks from apple. buying ainterest in london-based insurer. the deal could be worth more than $4 billion in details to be announced later today. it would add to the flurry of mla's recently in the bermuda insurance markets along with lloyds. $80 billion worth of deals have been signed this year, more than twice the amount in 2014. the car war is heating up in china with sources saying that
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they are close to raising $3 billion in the latest financing round. that would value the company at 16 point $5 billion. investors who climbed on since june include softbank, alibaba, and $.10. rishaad: coming up later on the program, europe is struggling with refugees as the u.n. describes the response is chaotic. we have the latest. angie: risk to the rebound. the challenges that are threatening abe's attempt to revive the japanese economy. that and more on this morning's "asia edge." stay with us. ♪
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rishaad: tracking some of the stories making headlines around the world, with the european union finalizing plans, thousands of refugees are fleeing syria. the proposal will be announced thursday and will aim to spread them evenly from finland to
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spain. germany says 4000 people arrived in munich following 20,000 on the weekend. 800,000xpects applications for asylum this year. the police say a suspect in the bangkok bombing has confessed to possessing explosives. the man was berated in front of cameras and asked whether he was guilty of having bomb making materials. his translator said guilty. he was arrested last week near the border and has not yet been formally charged. it is not clear if the confession carries legal weight in court. the architect whose controversial tokyo stadium has been scrapped is making another bid for the project. the cost ballooned to $2 billion, causing shinzo albe to say enough is enough. he is teaming up with a japanese company to offer what they say is a more cost-effective
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building. we have japan's second quarter gdp figure this morning and it was marginally better than people suspected and quite a bit better economists had forecast. you have a global strategist and economic developer at the capital partners joining us now. a contraction before you, growth? >> -- but for you, growth? >> yes, because i tend to look at the nominal figures, the reason being that the real mindset of the previous regime in japan was a real mindset. if you look at the twenty-year periods in real terms, the japanese economy performed well, in line with the other advanced economies. if you look at productivity, it outperformed them. the real growth was never a problem. the problem in japan was of course the lack of inflation and
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that is why i look at the nominal and the nominal numbers, even in this quarter which was a great quarter, showed slow growth. that is on top of the annualized 9% growth we talked about last time i was here. the numbers are quite good, actually. kio, we were talking to somebody that was telling us that growth is something they do not look at because so much is spent on state welfare or pensions. mikio: that is a demographic issue, something that economic policy cannot solve. the result of a lot of policies so i cannot say much about that. what economic policy can do, what it is actually doing in the past couple of years, is trying to get the correct monetary policy to focus on the right things and they are moving in the right direction so that is a start area rishaad: what he was -- start. rishaad: what he was saying is
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look at the corporate profitability. companies are doing really well. mikio: nominal gdp and corporate sametability or one of the thing. i just look at it from a macro point of view. if you translate it to the corporate world it is about corporate earnings and tax revenues. another reason is that you have to look at the nominal number because that is the basis for both corporate profits and tax revenues. you do not tax real income, you tax nominal income. time, theree same are rumors of disenchanted pessimism at the boj. said thatthe guys who if the japanese people do not believe us in terms of the optimism for the japanese economy, we are done for. mikio: that is the biggest risk, actually, that the leadership, that i agree with is a big risk. it is very said that if the japanese people do not believe unfortunate, if these
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reports are true. i think that is related to the past attitude. the old regime was, yeah, we will print money. defeatistan inbuilt attitude to whatever they did in the past thursday said we would never get out of this, this is a structural thing, forget about it. that mindset is not gone after two or three years of trying to do something so that is something that is worrying me and we need to watch that. angie: thank you for that. of course, we will discuss china as well when we get you back. rishaad: we were talking about the rout. angie: see why investors are turning sour on indonesia. rishaad: when "asia edge" returns. ♪
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angie: welcome back. you are watching "asia edge." we have been speaking with guests all day about major economic indicators out of china and japan and how policymakers have managed economies. the ceo says that the bank of andn lacks decisiveness that has not been helpful for the markets. >> what we are getting from the bank of japan is more of the complacency. the cpi is nowhere near the 2% we have targeted red most private economists are
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forecasting a negative cpi. that is not what global markets want. active,arkets want aggressive, proactive policymakers, and that is where japan has been lacking over the last couple of months. angie: almost three years after shinzo abe became prime minister, japanese growth is back to where it was. there are reports of growing unease among policymakers and fidelity's alex says that the banks should refrain from further easing. what japan needs after more than a generation of deflation and disinflation is for the populace to start thinking that prices can rise and tomorrow will be better than today. that is why i go back to the unemployment level, because i think it is individual household wealth rather than anything specific the boj does at this point in time. i hope they do not do anything.
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i think they might not use farther because they want the e farther because they want the other arrows to take up the slack. angie: that was the word from asia. no doubt that china is slowing. a new report says it might be permanent. run business welcomed beijing's talk of reform two years ago but now they are saying that the moment -- four in welcomed beijing's talk of reform two years ago but now they are foreignhat the -- business welcomed beijing's talk of reform two years ago but now they are stating that the moment and the momentum is lost. too many conflicting messages. it is hard to figure out. turmoil,through the has the momentum been lost? say so. would there must be so much pushback in the system that not only is reform not moving forward but
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there is resistance building up in the system. stephen: do you feel, and i think you do, that a slowdown in the economy is the right time to implement reform? sure, why waste a crisis? it is the best time. the problem is that it is the perception in the party and government that the slowdown will derail reform and that is the wrong take. we say that the slowdown is a warning shot to conduct the reforms of do not kick the can down the road. take it basically straight away now do the reform because we cannot wait. members what are your saying? has there been any improvement? joerg: slight improvement in some areas and closing down on others. in the old days it was like the chinese economy, opening up slowly, we never had reclosing.
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there is a fear of a competitive landscape across the board. there are systems that are close up. the problem will not be solved by putting more money into the economy. we have a hundred recommendations in this report to help the government contemplate. stephen: 800 recommendations? how many of them will they heed. joerg: we'll talk about it next year. if it is 10%, we will be happy. stephen: limiting state owned enterprises, not happening. increasing market access, mixed bag. committing to the rule of law, that is a sticking point. joerg: that is the biggest driver of growth according to members. question marks on ngos which are important stakeholders. you have a national security law which questions a lot of mma profitability's. what is a security issue in the
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economy? the rule of law means that environmental laws, which are good in china, not being implemented. that showed recently in tianjin, where you have good hazardous chemical laws in china, and the implementation was nonexistent because of corruption and nepotism. rishaad: we're looking forward to the afternoon's business open in tokyo. we will have the reopened coming your way, the morning session where we saw losses of after the economic contraction. the reopened of the nikkei and the topics is next. ♪
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♪ rishaad: a look at the top stories, more stress in china as exports slide with weak demand smothering attempts to boost the economy. following 5.5% and imports dropping 14%. that is the jump straight monthly decline. the australian prime minister has outlined his support for the free trade agreement with china. despite being signed last year, it has become a political football and is at risk of being struck down or altered. tony abbott says that it is a
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done deal and cannot be renegotiated. the latest data shows that japan's load, but not as much as expected, gdp falling 1.2%, less than forecast. policymakers are said to be losing confidence in the outlook for growth. there is a reopened in tokyo. let's get the latest. sherry: china's benchmark stock index sliding for the fifth consecutive day, led by industrials to falling 2.4% -- industrials. it for only .4%. we had the trade data --
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industrials. falling 2.4%. japan is coming back from the lunch break, moving between gains and losses all day. it is falling 1.5 percent. we had a report showing that the economy data -- industrials. falling 2.4%. shrank less than theiously thought but still economy shrinking 1.2% in the second quarter after growing for two consecutive quarters. we have the japanese yen weakening for a second consecutive session, not helping. let's see the biggest movers in japan, where these stocks are, the economy shrinkingup 5.9%. almost 6%. they develop firmware for mobile telecom and are biting back outstanding shares. we have geico mom declining's -- kikkiman declining 7.2%. declining despite news that they will benefit from the release of new iphones. after the almost 10% electronics maker began
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collaborating with a german company to develop automated driving maps. after j.p.heavy up morgan chase started covering, saying the stock was overweight. toyo up 7.5%. they have been raided a -- rated a buy. has made ah side takeover bid for a public beginning -- -- woodside has made a takeover bid for a pop under ginny -- papua new guiunea energy company. the board is reviewing. surging in japan. after it announced a $10 billion reduction plan three
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weeks after saying it could maintain the credit rating. they have backtracked, scrapping payments, and will sell shares and cut a third of the debt. the change comes after investors raised concerns, dropping nearly 60%. and the focus closer to home after the sale of the south korean business. the retailer is trying to reduce that and they say that operations and five nations could be the next to go. , they are the third biggest employer. they agreed to sell the korean unit four $6 billion, reading total debt down by 20%. rishaad: chinese stocks down for a fifth day with falling exports adding to concern. let's get analysis of the numbers. the chief correspondent and editor. let's look at this and start
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things out, the debt issue. what was your reaction to the trade numbers? it is a whopping surplus. >> it is an undeniably week set of numbers on the export side. on the import side, even if there is a valuation, it does not bode well for the chinese export sector and it puts more pressure on other areas of the economy to recover such as infrastructure spending that local governments are doing. that will be the key driver for growth rather than exports. rishaad: the problem is that they need the money which has led to the deposition. >> the deposition is awful but it gets all of the play. rishaad: you look at the ledger, you have the debt on one side and the asset on the other. debt situation, there is a range, up to 290%. on the asset side, it is harder to calculate.
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our bloomberg economists put it at 900%. this is a stronger position. rishaad: that is if they could liquid eyes. how liquid are the assets? malcolm: that is on the corporate side particularly. on assets ont 500% the corporate side. factories, raw materials, cash. that could be hard to sell. the household is very strong, about 330 percent of gdp, and that is on debt. enda: it is important to look at the other side of the ledger. there is a large overhang of of 2008.hina, a lot there were inefficient parts of the economy and it is acting as a drag on growth which is why the government needs a grip on or i
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that cap's the ability for further credit to stimulate the demand. rishaad: that is the problem. if they want to realize the assets, they would be doing it at a time when things have turned nasty and it becomes harder. they have flogged the assets off. enda: it depends on a bite of being there. it is the line about china having 3 trillion treasuries you cannot liquidate those overnight. you have to be careful about how you realize your asset position and the debt liabilities. that is something they have to deal with. malcolm: it is the debt overhang that could be the significant thing. the chance of a fire sale in china is slim. plenty of hands on the levers. this is not a market economy in the way that the u.s. and european czar, assets are -- europeans are. in china, sometimes there will not be the necessity to sell it discounted levels.
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data we're finally getting on how the enterprises will be shaking up and that could relieve the debt picture. rishaad: just a quick word. the last time we got the export and import trade balance was two days before we got the people's bank of china moving on the currency. what prism are they going to be looking at this with? enda: you assume it will be there. you would assume that china would let the yuan weaken. to the unitedoes states . it is unlikely they will let it weaken in the near term. -- united states . it is unlikely -- united states next month. it is unlikely they will let it weaken in the near term. malcolm: do they need to keep doing that? rishaad: thank you very much.
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angie: the ruby has sunk to the lowest level since the asian crisis, swelling indonesian debt. let's bring in has haslinda amin. talk about bad timing. debt -- a record haslinda: a record debt, all needing to be serviced with such a weak currency. it will take a lot more to pay for it, a lot more because the ripiah has been falling year to date, the second-worst performer in asia. the thing is, that is a trickle-down effect. expenses hurt the bottom line of companies. that in turn could prompt investors to sell stocks. the whole negativity might spill over to the bond market. it is a vicious cycle. you can understand the murmuring out there, that indonesia could
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end up in a debt crisis. but talk of a crisis might just be premature. we have not seen an asset bubble. there is caution in indonesia, it is not looking like 1998, so that is the upside. ringgit has been leading the dropn currencies. august the -- -- how does the rupiah compare? haslinda: comparisons have been made. it might see further decline. the market is more susceptible. indonesia is not as deep. if you take a look at the past three months, indonesian stocks and local currencies, they have fallen faster than indonesia. they do look at this. indonesia has been propping up the currency in a big way,
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spending a lot more to stabilize volatility. bet, keepe to make a an eye on it. angie: all right, thanks for that. rishaad: up next, disappointing news from china and japan. the effects on the global economy and if there is any optimism. you are watching "asia edge." ♪
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angie: checking stories making headlines around the world, south korea says they have reached an agreement with the north to reunite families split by the war. meeting at a mountain resort -- meetings at limon resort were suspended after a tourist was shot -- at a mountain resort were suspended after a tourist was shot. two governments have
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from me getting without specific permission. china has increased investment on the historic silk road trading route. almost 30%,rew by to more than $8.5 billion. beijing has put money into wholesaling and retail trade sectors, policing services, and engineering projects. entries on the silk road include russia, thailand, singapore, keswick stand -- kazakhstan, and laos. russians are fighting wildfires around the world's deepest lake. they say there are no dangerous and the situation is under control. the eastern and western shore and covers more than 1000 square miles of the region. ishaad: the european union
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finalizing plans to resell around 120,000 refugees fleeing war and poverty -- resettle around 120,000 refugees fleeing war and poverty in syria. the u.n. commission says that the responses chaotic and is demanding better. -- response is chaotic and is demanding better. >> a tide of humanity overwhelms hungarian police near the border. they vastly outnumber the authorities and they are desperate to continue the journey into europe in the hope of a better life. some are turned back. the long journey into europe continued. >> i am going to germany. >> germany, germany, germany. an example of what awaits those fortunate enough to make it into germany. germany is leading the response, spending $1.6 billion on an expected 800,000 new arrivals.
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angela merkel warns that the flow of margaret's will change the country and is urging eu nations to do more. that is echoed by the united nations high commission for refugees, who after meeting with the french president, slammed the response so far. >> what we are witnessing today is a chaotic situation. it is not a humane situation. it also does not serve the interests of the european union. that on september 14, fundamental decisions are made. it is not just a question of making little adjustments, it is the policy in place. >> the u.s. wants a well-organized reception for refugees. this is a key issue in the response so far. in many cases, it is impossible to verify if all of the people are fleeing the war in syria or where they are from or what motives are.
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angie: joining me now are zeb, david, and the executive director of lpg capital partners. you look at the fed's story of human migration, fleeing syria. are these the headwinds of the global economy we have not factored in? >> i am not sure it is a headwind to the economy but it might affect sentiment in europe. it is a big issue, especially in the core of europe. the sad thing is apart from the humanitarian dimension, this has been going on in greece years now and it is only when it reaches the core of europe that the eu policy awakens to the fact. in that sense i think it is progress because now it is on the table. you cannot ignore it and you have to find a solution for these people and also in broader
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terms, in the sense of having a reasonable and intelligent eu wide policy, which brings me to the bailout policies in the south. in that sense, it might be progress. in the short-term, it is a negative to sentiment. rishaad: for global economic considerations, which angie was talking about, where are we with the state of what is going on globally? we saw the china trade data. you look at the export number. does that tell you anything? mikio: the main problem i think in the economy right now, in the global picture, is sentiment driven. the fact that the chinese economy was not performing well and we have external trade in all of these issues. but that is not really news. china continues to grow. the main new element is, which is a risky one, if it is not overcome, is that some people are starting to lose confidence
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of the narrative of the chinese administration and the chinese government and the chinese bureaucrats, they have things under control and are on the reform path. that has been shaken with the handling of the stock exchange boom and bust, and also with the communication of what they want to do with the currency. that is a risk that has been added to the global system. i am out saying that it will play out negatively but that is something -- not saying that it is something that will play out negatively but that is something you have to look at. have the tools? they cannot do that every month. that is the wrong tool. of course they have the tool. i think that intervening -- you cannot really blame the chinese in fact because it is a very common thing that many emerging economies especially do when the currency is falling. it is considered something that you cannot let it happen because it is national prestige.
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first you have a paid currency that attracts -- pegged currency that attracts money flows and then you try to do the wrong thing is it is a form of monetary tightening is not a thing that china needs right now. that brings us back to the emerging market question, which is that you should ideally have a freely traded currency that reflects the need of the economy because nobody goes, panics in the japan or the euro the you can't have it. that is where we need to go. how to go from where -- you can hedge it. that is where we need to go. how to go from there to here. zeb: japan has economy of scale. but 20 years from now, as china become another japan when it is an advanced economy, if it close to the same pace that japan is at the moment, can you draw a
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correlation looking into the future. if china does not act decisively on policy, will it end up with its own lost decade, its own situation that japan finds itself in? sure about the timeframe but that is certainly a possibility, i would put it that way. are many elements, we talked about the options that china has how to deal with the debt overhang problem. and, you know, when you deal with that, there are only a few ways. you can inflate it away, you can forgive it and forget it, write it down and take the loss, or you can sit through over 20 or 30 years. which is what japan did. japan did it because it did not want to take uncomfortable measures and reforms and do would be radical way. it sort of just waited until it went away by itself which is the price that it is paying now. the difficulty of replacing it. that is for social reasons,
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right? i think there is a good chance, a good risk that china goes the same way because it does not want to tackle really difficult political and social reforms. rishaad: thank you so much. ltg capital. angie: plenty more to come on "asia edge." stay tuned. ♪
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rishaad: china seems to be torn between two schools. on the one hand, a market system. and then frayed nerves in the capital. there seems to be a scattered approach with no discernible success. even so, a senior economist says that the program has worked to an extent. they have been returning, on and off. turning it up or down throughout
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period of the entire year. the step it up when the growth slips a bit so at the end of the first quarter they stepped up again. at the first quarter when the equity market correction happened that is when they stepped up policy support. given that growth continues to slow, nevada people have been saying that it has not worked. actually, we think that it has. if it had not worked, growth would be much lower than the 6-7% level. we're seeing deceleration of the economy. that is to be expected because of the ups and downs. we're not seeing a sharp drop-off unlike the markets are projecting. we are seeing a slow grind down, something that should stay for the next year and a half. >> the kind of growth that you are expecting is at what level? donna: we're expecting it just
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shy of 7%, 6.8%. by the end of next year, on a quarterly basis, we think that the headlines will have slipped farther down. >> will they devalue the currency further? what do you make of the current evaluation? the current evaluation, which is not a last-minute knee-jerk. it does help with the exports. it also helps policymakers to fight deflationary pressure at home. however, we think that it was more of a currency policy formula. the -- renminbi pegged, that leaves them exposed. by depreciating the currency they bought currency room in the future. what i am referring to is the
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way that they are not injecting the market forces. given that market forces are expecting depreciation, that is why the remember he has drifted lower. -- renminbi has drifted lower. that we have seen the peso depreciation calm down to 2% -- we have seen the pace of depreciation calm down to do percent. they are trying to guide the valuation. -- down to 2%. they are trying to guide the devaluation. before we go, time to tell you about a big guest on bloomberg tv later. rishaad: there we go. warren buffett. angie: he will join us live from new york at midnight hong kong and singapore time, 5:00 if you are watching in london. rishaad: we have the chairman of the chinese online gaming
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company, he paid $2.3 million for the privilege. angie: that is right. you do not have to pay that. we are seeing some payoffs in hong kong
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